 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           1
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           4, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL1       0.6301600D+00  0.1625098D+01  0.1242600D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL1       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.1749D+03  0.3820D+04 -0.3715D+06 -0.3744D+07

REVE         0.5716D-02  0.1000D+01  0.2184D+02 -0.2124D+04 -0.2140D+05

LANGFR       0.2618D-03  0.4580D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.9725D+02 -0.9802D+03

UTIL1       -0.2692D-05 -0.4709D-03 -0.1028D-01  0.1000D+01  0.1008D+02

CONSTANT    -0.2671D-06 -0.4672D-04 -0.1020D-02  0.9922D-01  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1204258D+01  0.2161350D+00      5.5717864  0.2616950D-11  0.3356957D+00      1.2042579
                                                                              0.3326482D+00      1.2042579

REVE          X1  0.1693754D+01  0.2662392D+01      0.6361774 -0.3510778D-11  0.5872525D+02      1.6937538
                                                                              0.5084530D-01      1.6937538

LANGFR        X2  0.6364998D+00  0.2111257D+00      3.0147902 -0.5448996D-11  0.1282310D+04      0.6364998
                                                                              0.1583267D-01      0.6364998

UTIL1         X3 -0.1372467D+01  0.3073087D+00     -4.4660863  0.5228140D-11 -0.1247044D+06     -1.3724673
                                                                             -0.1482356D+01     -1.3724673

CONSTANT      X0 -0.8512047D+01  0.4013214D+01     -2.1210050 -0.2632929D-11 -0.1256879D+07     -8.5120474
                                                                             -0.1092879D+01     -8.5120474

VAR(W)            0.1792597D+01  0.2314233D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.1827592D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.4591
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.4403

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.2365
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.2099

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1283920D+00

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.3940641D-13
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1792597D+01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.2624203D+01   Upper Bound =  0.2624203D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.1827591746D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    11  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2595676099D+03  0.54876D+00  0.47965D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.16748D+00  0.95705D-01 -0.16401D-01 -0.14833D-02


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    16  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2640927424D+03  0.64758D+00  0.53029D+00  0.45952D+01  0.45952D+01 -0.10030D+00  0.12025D+00 -0.22619D-01 -0.46438D-02


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    20  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2668620500D+03  0.78816D+00  0.41787D+00  0.45959D+01  0.45955D+01 -0.12021D+00  0.29689D+00 -0.59221D-01 -0.19939D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    24  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2674891882D+03  0.82977D+00  0.37228D+00  0.45967D+01  0.45958D+01 -0.12181D+00  0.25601D+00 -0.90039D-01 -0.86662D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    27  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2697521685D+03  0.76580D+00  0.40479D+00  0.46022D+01  0.45980D+01 -0.68731D-01  0.36296D+00 -0.27125D+00 -0.46546D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    30  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2712130491D+03  0.86213D+00  0.35276D+00  0.46333D+01  0.46123D+01 -0.68482D-01  0.31033D+00 -0.39946D+00 -0.12136D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    33  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2716835506D+03  0.88282D+00  0.33837D+00  0.46560D+01  0.46249D+01 -0.57510D-01  0.33617D+00 -0.71599D-01 -0.14106D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    36  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2720160125D+03  0.85918D+00  0.36098D+00  0.47112D+01  0.46581D+01 -0.43912D-01  0.30642D+00 -0.37199D-01 -0.14732D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    40  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2721825747D+03  0.83718D+00  0.37419D+00  0.48606D+01  0.47533D+01 -0.56738D-01  0.29122D+00 -0.58491D-01 -0.21145D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    43  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2724106484D+03  0.82844D+00  0.37912D+00  0.51839D+01  0.49605D+01 -0.37634D-01  0.31455D+00 -0.11074D+00 -0.29863D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    46  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2725237001D+03  0.82058D+00  0.38421D+00  0.54959D+01  0.51714D+01 -0.36475D-01  0.32322D+00  0.11314D-01 -0.39293D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    48  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2725628434D+03  0.81791D+00  0.38592D+00  0.57049D+01  0.53226D+01 -0.40227D-01  0.30635D+00 -0.28599D-01 -0.44589D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    50  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2725659615D+03  0.82053D+00  0.38501D+00  0.57682D+01  0.53760D+01 -0.39337D-01  0.31023D+00 -0.34833D-01 -0.45360D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    52  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2725691474D+03  0.82540D+00  0.38182D+00  0.58952D+01  0.54984D+01 -0.38235D-01  0.30611D+00 -0.26094D-01 -0.45409D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    56  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2725902485D+03  0.82767D+00  0.37983D+00  0.69270D+01  0.65243D+01 -0.42332D-01  0.31111D+00 -0.22691D-01 -0.43583D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    59  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726031106D+03  0.81979D+00  0.38491D+00  0.76741D+01  0.72439D+01 -0.38698D-01  0.30901D+00 -0.34272D-01 -0.43889D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    61  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726075538D+03  0.82209D+00  0.38416D+00  0.87874D+01  0.83312D+01 -0.40455D-01  0.30817D+00 -0.28169D-01 -0.43691D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    63  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726092378D+03  0.82091D+00  0.38438D+00  0.96101D+01  0.91310D+01 -0.39271D-01  0.30903D+00 -0.33441D-01 -0.43712D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    66  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726099190D+03  0.82176D+00  0.38393D+00  0.10676D+02  0.10167D+02 -0.39923D-01  0.30884D+00 -0.28832D-01 -0.43922D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    68  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726101693D+03  0.82142D+00  0.38415D+00  0.11507D+02  0.10978D+02 -0.39597D-01  0.30876D+00 -0.32720D-01 -0.43683D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    70  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726102726D+03  0.82123D+00  0.38429D+00  0.12534D+02  0.11976D+02 -0.39654D-01  0.30895D+00 -0.29950D-01 -0.43862D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    72  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103120D+03  0.82154D+00  0.38408D+00  0.13334D+02  0.12757D+02 -0.39717D-01  0.30873D+00 -0.31681D-01 -0.43740D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    74  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103295D+03  0.82132D+00  0.38421D+00  0.14409D+02  0.13803D+02 -0.39618D-01  0.30892D+00 -0.30945D-01 -0.43805D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    76  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103357D+03  0.82145D+00  0.38414D+00  0.15186D+02  0.14559D+02 -0.39700D-01  0.30879D+00 -0.31233D-01 -0.43773D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    78  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103387D+03  0.82138D+00  0.38418D+00  0.16447D+02  0.15788D+02 -0.39646D-01  0.30887D+00 -0.31155D-01 -0.43785D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    80  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103395D+03  0.82142D+00  0.38415D+00  0.17033D+02  0.16358D+02 -0.39681D-01  0.30882D+00 -0.31177D-01 -0.43779D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    83  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103400D+03  0.82140D+00  0.38417D+00  0.18603D+02  0.17886D+02 -0.39662D-01  0.30885D+00 -0.31172D-01 -0.43782D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    85  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103401D+03  0.82142D+00  0.38416D+00  0.19125D+02  0.18395D+02 -0.39675D-01  0.30883D+00 -0.31174D-01 -0.43780D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    87  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103402D+03  0.82140D+00  0.38416D+00  0.21734D+02  0.20935D+02 -0.39665D-01  0.30884D+00 -0.31173D-01 -0.43781D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    89  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103402D+03  0.82141D+00  0.38416D+00  0.21132D+02  0.20349D+02 -0.39672D-01  0.30883D+00 -0.31173D-01 -0.43781D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    90  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2726103402D+03  0.82141D+00  0.38416D+00  0.21623D+02  0.20827D+02 -0.39671D-01  0.30883D+00 -0.31173D-01 -0.43781D+01



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2726103402D+03  0.82141D+00  0.38416D+00  0.21623D+02  0.20827D+02 -0.39671D-01  0.30883D+00 -0.31173D-01 -0.43781D+01



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2726103402D+03 for entry   90 - - x(i) follows
  0.82141E+00  0.38416E+00  0.21623E+02  0.20827E+02 -0.39671E-01  0.30883E+00 -0.31173E-01 -0.43781E+01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   90 nst=   31


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL1       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.9645D+02  0.3213D+04  0.1941D+05  0.7300D+06

REVE         0.1037D-01  0.1000D+01  0.3331D+02  0.2012D+03  0.7569D+04

LANGFR       0.3112D-03  0.3002D-01  0.1000D+01  0.6040D+01  0.2272D+03

UTIL1        0.5153D-04  0.4970D-02  0.1656D+00  0.1000D+01  0.3762D+02

CONSTANT     0.1370D-05  0.1321D-03  0.4401D-02  0.2658D-01  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.1529325D-01  0.2184378D-01      0.7001192                 0.7473456D-08  0.4004638D+00      1.4366039
                                 0.1130798D-02     13.5242958                                0.3811047D+00      1.3123210

REVE          X1  0.5259834D-01  0.9420699D-01      0.5583274                 0.1757267D-08  0.3862396D+02      1.1139923
                                 0.7784798D-01      0.6756545                                0.4200320D+02      1.0697754

LANGFR        X2  0.4553371D+00  0.1117917D+01      0.4073086                 0.1831821D-09  0.1286636D+04      0.6386467
                                 0.1750725D+00      2.6008495                                0.2024993D+04      0.6165552

UTIL1         X3  0.4469708D+00  0.3602106D+00      1.2408597                 0.3128023D-11  0.7771065D+04      0.0855265
                                 0.2259114D+00      1.9785221                                0.5290169D+05      0.4877649

CONSTANT      X0  0.1234706D+01  0.4258291D+01      0.2899534                 0.4447056D-10  0.2923415D+06      1.9798448
                                 0.2976148D+01      0.4148671                                0.3207724D+06      1.9017346

VAR(W)            0.1198237D+00  0.1039283D+00      1.1529456                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.1858674D-01      6.4467293
 
RHO1      (E)     0.6758367D+00  0.1099097D+00      6.1490169                 0.3878923D-03
                                 0.1008497D+00      6.7014225
RHO2      (E)     0.3663156D+00  0.1040009D+00      3.5222350                 0.1251965D-03
                                 0.9800921D-01      3.7375628
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.4438911D+00      2.2528050      0.0000000  0.6858445D+01
                                 0.4226820D+00      2.3658450      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.6574834D+00      1.5209509      0.0000000  0.4688857D+01
                                 0.6091450D+00      1.6416452      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.3967061D-01  0.4039669D-01     -0.9820262    -25.7365297 -0.1098241D-02
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.3088329D+00  0.1126401D+00      2.7417675     -6.1360681 -0.1570831D-03
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.3117320D-01  0.6694803D+00     -0.0465633     -1.5402592  0.1425718D-04
LAM(X3)   (E)    -0.4378071D+01  0.3989437D+01     -1.0974159     -1.3480778 -0.6347602D-06


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1385251D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6653
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6278

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9784
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9760

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0012
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1609093D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.3888758D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1198237D+00
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.7173525D+00   Upper Bound =  0.6395774D+00


CPU TIME:      3.69 sec
